Friday, 17 December 2010

**2nd Day** The Ashes 2010-2011: 3rd Test at Perth

England versus Australia
16th-20th December 2010

Who has made the biggest contribution so far to a possible win?
Who has made the biggest contribution to a possible loss?

Provisional WPA numbers after the second day at Perth (showing how each player has changed the probability that his team wins / loses / draws):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       13.1%      -11.9%       -1.1%
Hughes      -12.9%       18.0%       -5.2%
Ponting     -17.1%       21.4%       -4.4%
Clarke      -13.7%       17.2%       -3.6%
Hussey        8.8%       -8.7%        0.0%
Smith        -4.7%        6.0%       -1.3%
Haddin        2.4%       -2.5%        0.1%
Johnson      44.7%      -43.3%       -1.5%
Harris       13.7%      -12.4%       -1.2%
Siddle       12.3%      -13.7%        1.3%
Hilfenhaus  -13.0%       12.3%        0.8%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss      -3.3%        3.1%        0.3%
Cook         -1.2%        1.6%       -0.4%
Trott        -7.9%        9.0%       -1.1%
Pietersen   -10.9%       11.9%       -1.0%
Collingwood -10.8%       10.9%       -0.1%
Bell          5.3%       -5.4%        0.1%
Prior        -8.9%        9.1%       -0.3%
Swann         1.0%       -0.4%       -0.6%
Tremlett     21.3%      -15.0%       -6.4%
Anderson      0.9%        3.8%       -4.6%
Finn          4.5%       -3.4%       -1.2%

Mitchell Johnson deserves all the praise after the first two days.  He hit the highest score of any Australian in the first innings, and followed it up with bowling figures of 6-38.  This has been enough to contribute a massive 44.7% of a win to Australia.

Ricky Ponting has contributed 21.4% of a loss to Australia by putting up batting figures of only 12 and 1.  This means he has done more than any other player to put his team in a losing position, and if the numbers stay that way, it will be the second Test in a row that he has achieved that ignominious feat.

It's interesting that Chris Tremlett has done more than Steven Finn to contribute to an England win, although both have taken the same number of wickets so far.  Tremlett has been fortunate in taking wickets at crucial moments in the game when the loss of an Australian batsman caused a bigger swing in win probability.

Here is the graph of the game so far:

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