Monday, 27 December 2010

**2nd Day** The Ashes 2010-2011: 4th Test at Melbourne

England versus Australia
26th-30th December 2010

Who has made the biggest contribution so far to a possible win?
Who has made the biggest contribution to a possible loss?

Provisional WPA numbers after the second day at Melbourne (showing how each player has changed the probability that his team wins / loses / draws):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -5.2%        8.9%       -3.7%
Hughes       -5.1%        8.9%       -3.8%
Ponting      -6.7%        9.5%       -2.9%
Clarke       -4.0%        4.3%       -0.2%
Hussey       -7.1%        9.8%       -2.7%
Smith        -5.1%        7.0%       -1.8%
Haddin       -3.0%        3.4%       -0.4%
Johnson      -2.5%        2.8%       -0.3%
Harris       -1.0%        0.9%        0.2%
Siddle        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%
Hilfenhaus   -2.9%        2.8%        0.2%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss       1.6%       -1.7%        0.1%
Cook          2.1%       -2.1%        0.1%
Trott         1.3%       -1.6%        0.3%
Pietersen     0.5%       -0.4%       -0.1%
Collingwood  -0.2%        0.3%       -0.1%
Bell         -0.7%        0.7%       -0.1%
Prior         0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Bresnan      12.1%       -8.0%       -4.1%
Swann        -0.4%        0.0%        0.4%
Anderson     20.5%      -15.4%       -5.1%
Tremlett     19.8%      -12.8%       -7.0%

James Anderson and Chris Tremlett have been England's most valuable players in this game so far.  Anderson has created 20.5% of a win so far, and Tremlett has created 19.8% of a win so far.

Take a look at the story of the game so far in graph form:


All the excitement of the game happened in the first 42.5 overs, when Australia were bowled out for 98 runs.  Since then, England have been in a position to win, and so in the last day there has been very little swing in win probability.

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