Sunday, 5 December 2010

**3rd Day** The Ashes 2010-2011: 2nd Test at Adelaide

England versus Australia
3rd-7th December 2010

Who has put his team in the best position to win so far?
Who has left his team with some serious work to be done?

Provisional WPA numbers after the third day at Adelaide (showing how each player has changed the probability that his team wins / loses / draws):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -2.0%        1.2%        0.8%
Katich       -6.7%       11.9%       -5.2%
Ponting      -7.5%       11.8%       -4.4%
Clarke       -7.3%       10.5%       -3.2%
Hussey        7.0%       -8.2%        1.2%
North        -4.7%        5.5%       -0.8%
Haddin        6.1%       -9.5%        3.5%
Harris       -5.0%        6.6%       -1.6%
Doherty      -8.8%       10.2%       -1.4%
Siddle       -9.9%       10.4%       -0.5%
Bollinger    -2.5%        3.6%       -1.0%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss      -8.6%        9.6%       -1.1%
Cook         13.9%      -15.4%        1.6%
Trott         8.4%       -8.8%        0.5%
Pietersen     7.0%       -6.5%       -0.4%
Collingwood  -1.6%        1.0%        0.6%
Bell          0.1%       -0.1%        0.0%
Broad        -6.9%        3.7%        3.3%
Swann         1.0%       -0.4%       -0.6%
Anderson     28.3%      -18.7%       -9.7%
Finn         -5.7%        5.6%        0.1%
run outs     16.5%       -9.9%       -6.6%

James Anderson was the hero of the first day.  By taking four wickets for 51 runs he single handedly created 28.3% of a win for England.

England's fielding antics on day one also deserve an honourable mention: the run outs of Simon Katich and Xavier Doherty combined to net England 16.5% of a win.

Alastair Cook continued his impressive form, creating 13.9% of a win for England with his 148.

But why has Pietersen's knock of 213* only netted him 7.0% of a win?  Take a look at the graph below.....


Kevin Pietersen scored more runs than Alastair Cook, but Cook scored his at a more crucial point in the game, and so did more to increase England's chances of winning.  By the time Pietersen came to the crease, Cook and Trott had already done most of the hard work to put England in a commanding position.

It's easy to think that England have been in complete control of this game ever since the third over when Australia were reduced to 3-2.  But our graph reminds us that there was another time when the game was in the balance: immediately before Michael Hussey got out and Australia were 207-5.

Keep checking back here for updated stats and graphs of the game.

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