Saturday, 18 December 2010

**3rd Day** The Ashes 2010-2011: 3rd Test at Perth

England versus Australia
16th-20th December 2010

Who has made the biggest contribution so far to a possible win?
Who has made the biggest contribution to a possible loss?

Provisional WPA numbers after the third day at Perth (showing how each player has changed the probability that his team wins / loses / draws):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       14.8%      -13.5%       -1.1%
Hughes      -12.8%       17.9%       -5.2%
Ponting     -17.0%       21.3%       -4.4%
Clarke      -13.6%       17.1%       -3.5%
Hussey       21.1%      -21.1%        0.1%
Smith        -1.7%        3.1%       -1.4%
Haddin       -1.0%        1.0%        0.0%
Johnson      49.6%      -48.2%       -1.5%
Harris       17.5%      -16.2%       -1.2%
Siddle       10.4%      -11.8%        1.3%
Hilfenhaus   -8.6%        8.0%        0.8%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss      -8.2%        8.0%        0.3%
Cook         -9.2%        9.7%       -0.4%
Trott        -7.6%        8.6%       -1.1%
Pietersen   -16.4%       17.4%       -1.0%
Collingwood  -8.0%        8.0%       -0.1%
Bell          5.3%       -5.4%        0.1%
Prior        -8.9%        9.2%       -0.3%
Swann        -9.5%       11.0%       -1.3%
Tremlett     24.9%      -18.3%       -6.7%
Anderson     -4.4%        9.0%       -4.5%
Finn         -2.3%        3.4%       -1.2%

Mitchell Johnson is by far and away the man of the match so far, having single-handedly contributed 49.6% of a win to Australia.  He hit the highest score of any Australian in the first innings, followed it up with bowling figures of 6-38, and then took two more important wickets at the end of day 3 to put England in a very troublesome position.

Ricky Ponting has contributed 21.3% of a loss to Australia by putting up batting figures of only 12 and 1.  This means he has done more than any other player to put his team in a losing position, and if the numbers stay that way, it will be the second Test in a row that he has achieved that ignominious feat.

Kevin Pietersen has done the most to put England in a losing position by only scoring three runs in the entire match.  If England go on to lost this Test match, 17.4% of that loss will be attributable to him.

Chris Tremlett has been England's best player so far in the match.  Although England are currently in a losing position, Tremlett himself has contributed 24.9% to an English win.

Here is the graph of the game so far:

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