Monday, 6 December 2010

**4th Day** The Ashes 2010-2011: 2nd Test at Adelaide

England versus Australia
3rd-7th December 2010

Who has put his team in the best position to win so far?
Who has left his team with some serious work to be done?

Provisional WPA numbers after the fourth day at Adelaide (showing how each player has changed the probability that his team wins / loses / draws):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -2.0%       -2.6%        4.6%
Katich       -6.7%       14.6%       -7.9%
Ponting      -7.5%       16.6%       -9.2%
Clarke       -7.3%       12.9%       -5.6%
Hussey        7.0%      -15.6%        8.6%
North        -4.8%        5.5%       -0.7%
Haddin        6.1%       -9.5%        3.5%
Harris       -5.0%        6.6%       -1.6%
Doherty      -8.7%       11.5%       -2.7%
Siddle       -9.9%       10.7%       -0.7%
Bollinger    -2.5%        3.7%       -1.2%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss      -8.5%        9.6%       -1.1%
Cook         14.0%      -15.4%        1.5%
Trott         8.3%       -8.8%        0.5%
Pietersen    20.9%       -6.5%      -14.3%
Collingwood  -4.6%        1.0%        3.6%
Bell          0.8%       -0.1%       -0.8%
Prior         0.7%        0.0%       -0.6%
Broad       -10.3%        3.7%        6.6%
Swann         2.0%       -0.4%       -1.6%
Anderson     21.5%      -18.7%       -2.9%
Finn         -8.3%        5.6%        2.6%
run outs     16.5%       -9.9%       -6.6%

And here is the graph of Test match so far:


Kevin Pietersen had a greath fourth day: taking the scalp of Michael Clarke was huge for reducing Australia's chances of a draw.  This, combined with his double century, has netted him 20.9% of a win for England.

James Anderson had a poor day with the ball, and his contribution to an England win is down to 21.5% (it was 28.3% after day 3).

So who will ultimately be Man of the Match?  Our numbers tell us it's between those two players so far.  Surely it depends on how many wickets James Anderson can take on day 5?

Michael Hussey has been Australia's most useful player so far.  His batting numbers of 93 and 44* have reduced the probability of Australia losing by 15.6%.

Keep fingers crossed for the weather tomorrow.  So far the delays for rain and bad light have increased the probability of a draw by 4.0%

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