Friday, 3 December 2010

The Ashes 2010-2011: 1st Test at Brisbane

England versus Australia
The first Test at Brisbane 25th-29th November 2010

Who contributed most towards forcing a draw?
Who did the most to put his team in a winning position?
Who squandered his team's commanding position?

Here's what our WPA analysis thinks:

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss      -2.7%      -11.1%       13.7%
Cook          1.9%      -47.0%       45.1%
Trott        -6.1%      -13.3%       19.4%
Pietersen     0.1%        1.8%       -1.9%
Collingwood -11.0%       14.2%       -3.2%
Bell          7.8%      -12.1%        4.2%
Prior        -7.5%       11.9%       -4.4%
Broad       -15.5%       13.9%        1.7%
Swann       -10.6%        8.7%        2.1%
Anderson     -0.5%       -0.5%        1.0%
Finn          3.7%       -1.8%       -1.9%

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -1.0%       -4.4%        5.5%
Katich       -2.0%        3.1%       -1.1%
Ponting      -5.9%        6.0%       -0.1%
Clarke       -8.9%        9.4%       -0.5%
Hussey       28.8%      -30.6%        2.0%
North        -8.4%        6.7%        1.7%
Haddin       15.5%      -19.4%        4.2%
Johnson     -35.4%       14.0%       21.4%
Doherty     -21.4%       -3.3%       24.8%
Siddle       26.9%      -22.9%       -4.3%
Hilfenhaus  -30.3%        6.0%       24.4%

Alastair Cook was clearly the man of the match: he single handedly reduced Australia's chances of winning by 47.0%, by hitting 67 in his first innings and 235* in his second.
 
Michael Hussey did more than anybody to put his team in a winning position, by scoring 195 in the first innings and therefore contributing 28.8% of a win.  Peter Siddle was not far behind him, contributing 26.9% of a win by taking 6 wickets in the first innings.

Mitchell Johnson, Xavier Doherty and Ben Hilfenhaus must share the blame for letting England get away with a draw.  By not taking enough wickets the three of them combined to reduce Australia's chances of winning by 87.1%, and to increase the probability of a draw by 70.1%.


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