Tuesday, 7 December 2010

The Ashes 2010-2011: 2nd Test at Adelaide

England versus Australia
3rd-7th December 2010

Who contributed most towards putting his team in a position to win?
Who contributed most towards the danger of his team losing?
Who did most to avoid another drawn Test match?

Here is what our WPA analysis thinks for the 2nd Test at Adelaide (showing how each player has changed the probability that his team wins / loses / draws):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -2.0%       -2.6%        4.6%
Katich       -6.7%       14.6%       -7.9%
Ponting      -7.5%       16.6%       -9.2%
Clarke       -7.3%       12.9%       -5.6%
Hussey        7.0%       -6.6%       -0.4%
North        -4.7%        1.6%        3.1%
Haddin        6.1%       -6.4%        0.5%
Harris       -5.0%        6.8%       -1.8%
Doherty      -8.7%       11.5%       -2.7%
Siddle       -9.9%       10.7%       -0.7%
Bollinger    -2.5%        3.7%       -1.2%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss      -8.5%        9.6%       -1.1%
Cook         14.0%      -15.4%        1.5%
Trott         8.3%       -8.8%        0.5%
Pietersen    19.5%       -6.5%      -12.9%
Collingwood  -4.7%        1.0%        3.6%
Bell          0.8%       -0.1%       -0.8%
Prior         0.7%        0.0%       -0.6%
Broad       -10.3%        3.7%        6.6%
Swann         0.7%       -0.4%       -0.3%
Anderson     23.3%      -18.7%       -4.8%
Finn          0.6%        5.6%       -6.3%
run outs     16.5%       -9.9%       -6.6%

And here is the graph of how theTest match progressed:


The official Man of the Match award went to Kevin Pietersen, primarily for hitting 227 in the first innings, but also for taking Michael Clarke's wicket in the second innings.  However, our numbers suggest that James Anderson did slightly more to put England in a winning position: he contributed 23.3% of a win, compared to Pietersen's 19.5%.

Both captains had bad games.  Ricky Ponting did more than any other player to put his team in a losing position.  By hitting scores of 0 and 9 he single handedly gave Australia 16.6% of a loss.  Meanwhile, Andrew Strauss did more than anyone else on the English side to put his team in a losing position, by contributing 9.6% of a loss.

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