Sunday, 19 December 2010

The Ashes 2010-2011: 3rd Test at Perth

England versus Australia
16th-20th December 2010

Who contributed most towards putting his team in a winning position?
Who contributed most towards the danger of his team losing?

Here is our WPA analysis of the 3rd Ashes Test at Perth (showing how each player changed the probability that his team would go on to win / lose / draw):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       14.8%      -13.5%       -1.1%
Hughes      -12.8%       17.9%       -5.2%
Ponting     -17.0%       21.3%       -4.4%
Clarke      -13.6%       17.1%       -3.5%
Hussey       21.1%      -21.1%        0.1%
Smith        -1.7%        3.1%       -1.4%
Haddin       -1.0%        1.0%        0.0%
Johnson      49.6%      -48.1%       -1.5%
Harris       17.6%      -16.3%       -1.2%
Siddle       10.4%      -11.8%        1.3%
Hilfenhaus   -8.6%        8.0%        0.8%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss      -8.2%        8.0%        0.3%
Cook         -9.2%        9.7%       -0.4%
Trott        -7.6%        8.6%       -1.1%
Pietersen   -16.4%       17.4%       -1.0%
Collingwood  -8.0%        8.0%       -0.1%
Bell          5.3%       -5.3%        0.1%
Prior        -8.8%        9.1%       -0.3%
Swann        -9.5%       11.0%       -1.3%
Tremlett     24.9%      -18.3%       -6.7%
Anderson     -4.4%        9.1%       -4.5%
Finn         -2.3%        3.4%       -1.2%

Mitchell Johnson was by far and away the man of the match, having single-handedly contributed 49.6% of a win to Australia.  His bowling figures for the match were 6-38 and 3-44, and many of his wickets were of important English batsmen at pivotal moments of the game.  Furthermore, he was the highest scoring batsman in Australia's first innings at a point in the game when they were desperately seeking runs.

Ryan Harris took just as many wickets as Mitchell Johnson over the course of the match.  However, Harris did most of his damage in the second innings when Australia were already virtually guaranteed of victory.  His contribution to an Australian win was 17.6% - still impressive, but no Johnson.

Ricky Ponting contributed 21.3% of a loss to Australia by putting up batting figures of only 12 and 1.  This means he did more than any other player to put his team in a losing position, and that's the second Test in a row that he has achieved that ignominious feat.

Kevin Pietersen did the most to put England in a losing position by only scoring three runs in the entire match.  A 17.4% chunk of England's loss was directly attributable to his poor performance.

Chris Tremlett was England's best player in the match.  Although England lost the match, Tremlett himself has contributed 24.9% to an English win.

Here is the graph of the progression of the Test match:

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