Wednesday, 29 December 2010

The Ashes 2010-2011: 4th Test at Melbourne

England versus Australia
26th-30th December 2010

Who contributed most towards putting his team in a winning position?
Who contributed most towards the danger of his team losing?

Here is our WPA analysis of the fourth Test at Melbourne (showing how each player changed the probability that his team would go on to win / lose / draw):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -5.2%        8.8%       -3.6%
Hughes       -5.2%        9.7%       -4.5%
Ponting      -6.7%        9.5%       -2.8%
Clarke       -4.0%        4.3%       -0.2%
Hussey       -7.1%        9.8%       -2.8%
Smith        -5.1%        6.9%       -1.8%
Haddin       -3.0%        3.4%       -0.4%
Johnson      -2.5%        2.9%       -0.4%
Harris       -1.1%        0.9%        0.2%
Siddle        0.1%       -0.1%        0.0%
Hilfenhaus   -2.9%        2.7%        0.2%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss       1.6%       -1.7%        0.1%
Cook          2.1%       -2.1%        0.1%
Trott         1.3%       -1.6%        0.4%
Pietersen     0.5%       -0.4%       -0.1%
Collingwood  -0.2%        0.3%       -0.1%
Bell         -0.7%        0.7%       -0.1%
Prior         0.7%       -0.6%        0.0%
Bresnan      13.1%       -8.1%       -5.0%
Swann        -0.6%        0.0%        0.6%
Anderson     19.9%      -15.3%       -4.6%
Tremlett     19.2%      -12.7%       -6.5%

And here is the story of how the Test match progressed:


The graph shows that all the excitement happened on the first day when Australia were bowled out for 98.  England then calmly maintained their dominant position until the conclusion of the match.

James Anderson and Chris Tremlett were England's most valuable players over the course of the game.  Anderson created 19.9% of a win for England, and Tremlett created 19.2% of a win.

The official man of the match was Jonathan Trott for his knock of 168*.  However, our WPA analysis only credited him with 1.3% of a win.  This is because he came in to bat at a point in the game when England were already nearly certain of a win.

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