Monday, 3 January 2011

**1st Day** The Ashes 2010-2011: 5th Test at Sydney

England versus Australia
3rd-7th January 2011

Who has made the biggest contribution so far to a possible win?
Who has made the biggest contribution to a possible loss?

Provisional WPA numbers after the first day at Sydney (showing how each player has changed the probability that his team wins / loses / draws):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -0.2%       -2.0%        2.2%
Hughes       -2.7%        3.9%       -1.2%
Khawaja      -3.4%        4.4%       -1.1%
Clarke       -6.0%       11.7%       -5.7%
Hussey        2.0%       -3.4%        1.4%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Anderson     -9.6%        2.5%        7.2%
Tremlett      1.4%       -0.9%       -0.5%
Bresnan      11.3%       -4.8%       -6.5%
Swann        11.4%       -6.5%       -4.9%
Collingwood  -0.9%        0.1%        0.8%

Michael Clarke has got off to a bad start in his new position as Australian captain.  His first innings score of 4 means he has already contributed 11.7% of a loss to his team.

Tim Bresnan and Graeme Swann have done the most to put England in a winning position, contributing 11.3% and 11.4% of a win, respectively.  Bresnan did this by taking two wickets (a positive contribution to a win) but giving up 47 runs (a negative contribution to a win).  Meanwhile, Swann took only one wicket, but did so while only giving up 6 runs.

Here is the graph of the game so far:

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