Tuesday, 4 January 2011

**2nd Day** The Ashes 2010-2011: 5th Test at Sydney

England versus Australia
3rd-7th January 2011

Who has made the biggest contribution so far to a possible win?
Who has made the biggest contribution to a possible loss?

Provisional WPA numbers after the second day at Sydney (showing how each player has changed the probability that his team wins / loses / draws):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -1.8%       -0.7%        2.6%
Hughes       -2.7%        3.9%       -1.2%
Khawaja      -3.4%        4.4%       -1.1%
Clarke       -6.0%       11.7%       -5.7%
Hussey       -2.2%        3.0%       -0.8%
Haddin       -6.0%       10.7%       -4.7%
Smith        -2.4%        3.0%       -0.5%
Johnson      17.2%      -15.8%       -1.5%
Siddle       -8.3%       -3.4%        1.4%
Hilfenhaus    2.0%        8.4%        0.0%
Beer         -4.9%        3.1%        1.9%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss       5.3%       -3.6%       -1.7%
Cook          9.3%      -12.1%        2.9%
Trott        -7.9%        9.7%       -1.9%
Pietersen    -0.7%        1.4%       -0.7%
Collingwood  11.7%       -6.9%       -4.8%
Anderson     10.2%       -9.1%       -1.0%
Tremlett     -6.7%        4.1%        2.6%
Bresnan       4.4%       -0.7%       -3.8%
Swann         2.5%       -1.4%       -1.1%

Mitchell Johnson has been Australia's top performer so far - just as he was at in the 3rd Test at Perth.  His innings of 53 was immensely valuable to Australia at a point in the game when England should have been taking wickets as quickly as possible.  On top of that, he took two big wickets in the afternoon, and so he has so far netted 17.2% of a win for Australia.

Among the English players, it is Paul Collingwood (rather surprisingly) who has done the most to swing the game in his team's favour.  All he's done is take one wicket - but what an important wicket!  Most importantly, he took achieved this feat whilst only giving up 5 runs, which means he's personally given England 11.7% of a win so far.

James Anderson (4 wickets) and Alistair Cook (61*) are England's other two most valuable players, contributing 10.2% and 9.3% of a win so far.

Michael Clarke got off to a bad start in his new position as Australian captain.  His first innings score of 4 means he has already contributed 11.7% of a loss to his team.

Here is the graph of the game so far:

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