Wednesday, 5 January 2011

**3rd Day** The Ashes 2010-2011: 5th Test at Sydney

England versus Australia
3rd-7th January 2011

Who has made the biggest contribution so far to a possible win?
Who has made the biggest contribution to a possible loss?

Provisional WPA numbers after the third day at Sydney (showing how each player has changed the probability that his team wins / loses / draws):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -4.3%        0.3%        4.0%
Hughes       -2.7%        3.9%       -1.2%
Khawaja      -3.4%        4.4%       -1.1%
Clarke       -6.0%       11.7%       -5.7%
Hussey       -2.3%        3.0%       -0.7%
Haddin       -6.0%       10.7%       -4.7%
Smith        -4.2%        5.4%       -0.5%
Johnson      10.7%      -10.1%       -0.6%
Siddle      -12.3%       12.5%       -0.1%
Hilfenhaus   -7.6%        4.3%        3.4%
Beer         -5.6%        3.2%        2.5%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss       5.3%       -3.6%       -1.7%
Cook         24.4%      -29.6%        5.4%
Trott        -7.9%        9.7%       -1.9%
Pietersen    -0.7%        1.4%       -0.7%
Collingwood   8.3%       -2.4%       -6.0%
Bell          6.0%       -9.8%        4.0%
Prior         2.9%       -1.9%       -1.0%
Anderson      8.7%       -7.4%       -1.2%
Bresnan       4.2%       -0.7%       -3.6%
Swann         2.5%       -1.4%       -1.1%
Tremlett     -6.7%        4.1%        2.6%

Alistair Cook has been England's most valuable player so far in this game.  His first innings score of 189 means he has personally contributed 24.4% of a win to England, and has erased any Australian hopes of a victory.

Among the Australians, Peter Siddle is most culpable for putting his team in a losing position, having contributed 12.5% of a loss so far.  He has leaked 98 runs to England, and his only wicket was that of the nightwatchman - and you don't get credited with much WPA for that.

Captain Michael Clarke must also share the blame for putting Australia in a losing position.  His first innings score of 4 runs was worth 11.7% of a loss to his team.

Here is the graph of the game so far:

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