Friday, 7 January 2011

The Ashes 2010-2011: 5th Test at Sydney

England versus Australia
3rd-7th January 2011

Who contributed most towards putting his team in a winning position?
Who contributed most towards the danger of his team losing?

Here is our WPA analysis of the fifth Test at Sydney (showing how each player changed the probability that his team would go on to win / lose / draw):

            Aus win     Aus lose     draw
Watson       -4.3%        3.1%        1.3%
Hughes       -2.7%        6.5%       -3.8%
Khawaja      -3.4%        8.3%       -5.0%
Clarke       -6.0%       11.6%       -5.6%
Hussey       -2.3%        4.1%       -1.8%
Haddin       -6.0%        9.9%       -4.0%
Smith        -4.2%        6.1%       -1.8%
Johnson      10.5%       -6.8%       -3.6%
Siddle      -12.3%       12.3%        0.1%
Hilfenhaus   -7.7%        3.2%        4.6%
Beer         -5.7%        3.2%        2.5%

            Eng win     Eng lose     draw
Strauss       5.3%       -3.6%       -1.7%
Cook         24.4%      -29.6%        5.4%
Trott        -7.9%        9.7%       -1.9%
Pietersen    -0.7%        1.4%       -0.7%
Collingwood   8.3%       -2.4%       -6.0%
Bell          6.0%       -9.8%        4.0%
Prior         5.9%       -2.3%       -3.5%
Anderson     16.2%       -7.4%       -8.7%
Bresnan       8.8%       -1.0%       -7.8%
Swann        -2.0%       -1.4%        3.4%
Tremlett    -12.3%        4.1%        8.1%
run outs      7.4%        0.0%       -7.4% 

Alastair Cook was England's most valuable player, and deservedly the official man of the match.  His first innings score of 189 meant he has personally contributed 24.4% of a win to England, and erased any Australian hopes of a victory.

Among the Australians, Peter Siddle was most culpable for putting his team in a losing position, having contributed 12.3% of a loss.  He leaked 111 runs to England in their first innings, and his only wicket was that of the nightwatchman - and you don't get credited with much WPA for that.

Captain Michael Clarke must also share the blame for putting Australia in a losing position.  His first innings score of 4 runs caused a significant swing in favour of England, and his second innings score of 41 came too late to have any significant impact on the state of the game.  His contribution to his country stands at 11.6% of a loss.

James Anderson, Tim Bresnan and Chris Tremlett each took a good handful of wickets over the course of the Test.  However, their contributions to an England win are wildly different: 16.2%, 8.8% and -12.3%, respectively.  Anderson seems to have a lucky habit of taking his wickets when England need them most, and this causes big swings in win probability, to Anderson's credit.  Conversely, Tremlett has a habit of giving up runs when his team most needs him to take wickets, and then to take wickets when his team are comfortably in control of the game.  Unfortunately for Tremlett, this has given him a negative contribution to the England win.

Here is the graph of how the game progressed:

No comments:

Post a Comment