Thursday, 20 January 2011

South Africa v India: 1st Test at Centurion


South Africa versus India
The First Test at Centurion 16th-19th December 2010

Who contributed most to put his team in a winning position?
Who did the most to lose the game for his team?

Here is our WPA analysis of the Test (showing how each player changed the probability that his team would go on to win/lose/draw):


SA win
SA lose
Draw
Smith
3.1%
-2.7%
-0.4%
Petersen
3.0%
-3.0%
0.0%
Amla
2.4%
-2.2%
-0.1%
Kallis
7.9%
-4.7%
-3.2%
de Villiers
0.6%
0.0%
-0.6%
Prince
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Boucher
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Harris
-1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
Steyn
28.7%
-11.7%
-17.0%
Morkel
28.6%
-13.6%
-14.9%
Tsotsobe
-10.2%
5.8%
4.4%
run out
4.1%
-2.6%
-1.5%








 
Ind win
Ind lose
Draw
Gambhir
-4.7%
8.5%
-3.8%
Sehwag
-4.3%
12.9%
-8.6%
Dravid
-4.3%
10.2%
-6.0%
Tendulkar
-0.5%
-1.3%
1.8%
Laxman
-4.9%
11.9%
-7.1%
Raina
-6.5%
13.0%
-6.5%
Dhoni
1.5%
-0.3%
-1.1%
Harbhajan
0.8%
0.4%
-1.1%
Sharma
-4.5%
5.1%
-0.5%
Sreesanth
-5.2%
6.1%
-0.8%
Unadkat
-2.5%
2.5%
0.0%


Hello all, and welcome to a bonus cricketwpa retrospective, looking at the much anticpated (“one versus two”) series between South Africa and India.

The series started dramatically, with Morkel and Steyn ripping apart the Indian lineup and, aside from two partnerships of around 40, there really was no letup for the Indian batsmen. This clearly led to a dramatic swing in WPA; over the whole game, Steyn and Morkel each contributed over 28% of a win for South Africa! While two South African bowlers basked in WPA the Indian top order all took a share of the increase in loss likelihood engendered by their sorry batting performance.

Whilst India fans everywhere were still dazed following their team’s collapse, the South African top 5 serenely played on and on, scoring 620 runs at a rate of 4.8 runs an over! (But surely most India fans would have long switched off after seeing their team slip to 136 all out?). Indeed, during Smith and Petersen’s hundred run opening stand, the South African win probability cruised past 90 %, so even the WPA computer was tempted to shut up shop by then!

But what South Africa fans, the WPA computer and the world did see was a true batting masterclass. But unfortunately the magnificent fluidity shown by Amla, Kallis and de Villiers earned very little WPA- there was so little left to win for South Africa after the bowlers did the damage. Kallis did end the game with 7.9% of WPA, though ironically he earned 6.8% of WPA for his 1st innings bowling (where he took one wicket), and only 2.1% for his unbeaten double century! The strange world of WPA...

In brief moments, Indian fans dreamed of a draw during India’s fine second innings score of 259, but in truth (weather permitting of course), the draw probability peaked at 4%...

So, the first Test was over and Kallis was named man of the match for his unbeaten 201. Not to take anything away from his magnificent knock, but wasn’t the game mostly already won by the time he even came to the crease? In our eyes, Steyn and Morkel were the true game changers!

The Indian team (largely their bowling attack) were suddenly labelled as inept. But could the batsmen at least take some confidence from their decent second innings knock? The players moved on to Durban...





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