If you're not sure what Win Probability Added (WPA) is, it may be best to check out the links on the toolbar at the top for a brief introduction blurb, and to check out our recent match analyses found in our Ashes and South Africa v India series archives.
Right, so for the initiated, here's the deal. We've picked a match from the last decade of Test cricket, and done the analysis of how much each player contributed to his team's chances of winning/losing/drawing the match, as we did for the recent winter Test matches. We have called the teams 'Team A' and 'Team B', but are not telling you which is the home and which is the away team.
The player totals are listed below, and below that is a graph showing how the win/lose/draw probabilities changed during the course of the game. Who is Player A9?! What a performance!
Only a couple of clues for now:
1) The order the players are listed in are 'rough' batting orders (for different reasons, both batting orders were shuffled slightly during the game).
2) There were a quite a few overs lost on the second day due to poor weather. This can be seen where there are large upward discontinuities in draw probability.
We have a twitter account, @cricketwpa, and will give out more ('proper') clues on our feed if people ask for them (please if you know the answer, don't post spoilers), but thought we'd keep it difficult for the time being.
So remember: last 10 years, big Test match, could be any teams, anywhere! Good luck!!
|A win||B win||draw|
|B win||A win||draw|