Thursday, 17 February 2011

A Cricketwpa Quiz

As we are currently deprived of live Test cricket to analyse, we thought we'd try out an idea we had for a WPA themed quiz...

If you're not sure what Win Probability Added (WPA) is, it may be best to check out the links on the toolbar at the top for a brief introduction blurb, and to check out our recent match analyses found in our Ashes and South Africa v India series archives.

Right, so for the initiated, here's the deal. We've picked a match from the last decade of Test cricket, and done the analysis of how much each player contributed to his team's chances of winning/losing/drawing the match, as we did for the recent winter Test matches. We have called the teams 'Team A' and 'Team B', but are not telling you which is the home and which is the away team.

The player totals are listed below, and below that is a graph showing how the win/lose/draw probabilities changed during the course of the game. Who is Player A9?! What a performance!

Only a couple of clues for now:

1) The order the players are listed in are 'rough' batting orders (for different reasons, both batting orders were shuffled slightly during the game).

2) There were a quite a few overs lost on the second day due to poor weather. This can be seen where there are large upward discontinuities in draw probability.

We have a twitter account, @cricketwpa, and will give out more ('proper') clues on our feed if people ask for them (please if you know the answer, don't post spoilers), but thought we'd keep it difficult for the time being.

So remember: last 10 years, big Test match, could be any teams, anywhere! Good luck!!


Team A



A winB windraw
Player A1-8.3%-19.9%28.3%
Player A211.8%-7.5%-4.3%
Player A35.8%-2.3%-3.5%
Player A410.4%-33.7%23.5%
Player A5-5.8%15.1%-9.4%
Player A6-14.8%5.3%9.5%
Player A7-2.7%10.9%-8.2%
Player A818.4%-1.9%-16.4%
Player A9111.7%4.4%-116.2%
Player A10-34.5%-6.3%40.9%
Player A11-26.1%6.1%20.0%
run out(s)6.2%-0.9%-5.3%



Team B



B winA windraw
Player B10.0%-13.6%13.6%
Player B26.8%-42.8%36.0%
Player B3-2.4%27.7%-25.3%
Player B4-23.9%25.7%-1.6%
Player B5-2.1%27.1%-25.0%
Player B6-1.2%21.3%-20.2%
Player B72.6%15.8%-18.5%
Player B8-16.8%20.9%-4.0%
Player B9-7.6%-13.9%21.6%
Player B1011.6%2.8%-14.2%
Player B11-4.2%13.6%-9.4%



2 comments:

  1. Australia vs Pakistan - That test match!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. For the curious, the answer is now up on the @cricketwpa twitter feed!

    ReplyDelete