Thursday, 26 May 2011

England v Sri Lanka, 1st Test at Cardiff: Day 1

Hello all, it's great you're checking out our Cricket WPA site! It's good to be back, sharing our different kind of cricket analysis approach with cricket lovers everywhere (those with a bit of spare internet browsing time at least!).

As we always say, if you're not sure what we're going on about, please take a moment to look at our Ashes and SA v India coverage from last winter (sweet memories for some!), and our introductory blurbs, which can help give you an idea of what WPA actually is; links are located on the toolbar above...

Alas we were kept waiting at the start of this Test by Mother Nature, who chose to piss all over the first day, presumably in an effort to get S4C executives to commission another series of SuperTed (who himself has descended into alcoholism after 25 years of unemployment). We say give her what she wants (maybe casting Steve Smith as Spotty?).

Anyhoo, this rambling is clearly a sign that we don't have very much cricket to talk about; a good opening partnership and a couple of quick wickets... Report done! Or is it? Yes, but we'll have a quick look at the stats first...

Here's a table of which players did the most to put their team in a winning/losing position:

Eng Win
SL Win
Draw
Tremlett -5.6% 2.4% 3.2%
Broad -9.6% 6.7% 2.9%
Swann 5.2% -4.2% -1.0%
Anderson 3.2% -1.7% -1.4%
SL win
Eng Win
Draw
Parav'ana 7.0% -12.8% 5.9%
Dilshan 1.7% -1.5% -0.1%
Sang'ara -3.4% 5.8% -2.4%
Jayaw'ene -0.1% -1.4% 1.5%

Clearly, Paranavitana was the standout player of the day, contribuiting 7% of a win for Sri Lanka with a patient knock of 58*. Swann's dismissal of Dilshan whilst also only conceding 12 runs in 8 overs contributed 5.2% towards an England win. Tremlett bowled well but didn't take a wicket, so alas he got punished in the WPA stakes. Stuart Broad was more expensive than Tremlett, and becomes today's WPA wooden spoon winner, relinquishing 9.6% of a win with his 0-45.

Clearly it's early days in the Test, and given that it's a rainy one, we just wanted to clarify one thing in advance. Hopefully you've been asking: "With all this rain, why is the Draw Probability so low?". The answer lies in our methodology: rightly or wrongly, our standard practice is to assume that all overs that can remain to be bowled will be. The 40 or so overs that were lost can be made up over the rest of the match, but any further delays will probably result in overs being permanently lost from the match, so be on the lookout for spikes in Draw Probability in the next few days!


And finally, here is a graph of today's (limited) action:



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