Saturday, 28 May 2011

England v Sri Lanka, 1st Test at Cardiff: Day 2

So our worries about rain were unfounded (as yet), and today we got some great Test match action. Wickets we hoped for (apologies for being biased), and wickets we got, albeit frustratingly slowly. Truth be told, the Sri Lankans (and in particular the 'other' Jayawardene) batted very well against the swinging ball, and, come the end of the day, England were left a wicket down desperately in need of an assertive batting display on the morrow... So much for the betting odds at the start of the game! As a side note (it has now become a long term gripe of ours), we love England but can someone tell Stuart Broad to stop being such a dick. At this stage of their careers, Aleem Dar has exhibited far more talent than he has, so please, please pay him some respect and at least look at him when appealing!

Gripes aside, 400 is a great start for the Lankans, and Strauss's wicket really did serve as something of a win probability 'swinger' late in the day.

Let's see how much the have players contributed to their teams' chances of winning/losing/drawing so far during this Test match:

SL win
Eng win
Maharoof -3.6% 2.7% 0.9%
Lakmal 5.6% -0.9% -4.7%
Paran'ana -0.8% -4.1% 4.8%
Sang'kara -2.6% 5.7% -3.2%
Dilshan -0.7% -0.3% 1.0%
Sam'eera 3.5% -2.3% -1.3%
M.Jay'dene -5.8% 9.3% -3.5%
Perera -4.1% 2.1% 2.1%
P.Jay'dene 12.9% -22.0% 9.2%
Herath 1.4% -1.8% 0.4%
Mendis -0.2% -0.5% 0.7%

Eng win
SL win
Tremlett -8.8% 4.4% 4.4%
Strauss -3.1% 5.9% -2.8%
Trott -7.2% 4.6% 2.6%
Cook 2.5% -7.4% 4.9%
Pietersen -0.7% 0.2% 0.4%
Broad -17.2% 10.9% 6.3%
Swann -5.6% 2.4% 3.3%
Anderson 21.6% -11.6% -10.1%

Somewhat surprisingly, Jimmy Anderson garnered a healthy 21.6% of a win for England. Don't forget however, he dismissed three of Sri Lanka's most fearsome batsmen: Sangakarra, Samaraweera, and the 'famous' Jayawardene, all when the game was more in the balance than it is now. No other bowler served to increase England's chances of winning, and Stuart 'Sour Grapes' Broad reinforced his position as the most costly player (in win terms) of the game so far, giving up 113 runs, and taking only two wickets (one lower order batsman, the other being the 9th wicket to fall). That's not the way to earn WPA!

The 'other' Jayawardene clearly lived up to his (sur)name today as he assembled a classy 112, worth 12.9% of a win for Sri Lanka. Lakmal's dismissal of Strauss late in the day also put him in positive WPA territory. More importantly, as of tonight, only two Sri Lankan players served to increase England's chances of victory by more than 3%- that's some fairly evenly distributed, and highly frustrating, batting displays!

Check back tomorrow for an update on the 3rd day's play, but for now, here's a graph of the match so far:

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