Monday, 30 May 2011

England v Sri Lanka, 1st Test at Cardiff: Day 4

Rain continued to steal overs from the cricket-loving public on day 4 of the Cardiff Test, but fortunately it's not as if the match was finely in the balance. A draw is firmly on the cards here, as a result of Cook, Bell and Trott all filling their boots. Can we truly now say that England have something close to a fearsome top/middle order? In the 20 years or so we have been following cricket, such thoughts have been truly alien... Having said that, it's not as if England were facing Dale Steyn yesterday; Sri Lanka looked resigned to the draw. By yesterday's post their chances of winning were minimal, today it is as zero as zero can be in cricket...

England still have a chance of winning (expect their Win Probability to spike upon a declaration), so a hypothetical Sri Lanka collapse on the final day would yield a flood of WPA for the England bowlers. However, the most likely outcome by far is for the day to grind to a draw, and little WPA to be earned on either side. Let's see how much the players have contributed to their teams' chances of winning/losing/drawing this Test:


Eng win
SL win
Draw
Morgan 0.7% 0.0% -0.7%
Tremlett -8.6% 3.8% 4.8%
Strauss -3.3% 6.6% -3.2%
Trott -3.0% -19.6% 22.7%
Cook 5.1% -27.4% 22.4%
Bell 2.7% -1.1% -1.6%
Pietersen -1.0% 1.2% -0.2%
Broad -17.8% 10.2% 7.6%
Swann -6.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Anderson 19.7% -7.9% -11.9%

SL win
Eng win
Draw
Maharoof -12.1% 6.4% 5.7%
Lakmal -1.5% 2.4% -0.8%
Para'tana -1.2% -4.3% 5.4%
Sang'ara -2.2% 5.6% -3.4%
Dilshan -3.4% 0.8% 2.6%
Sam'eera 3.5% -2.4% -1.2%
M.Jay'dene -5.3% 9.1% -3.8%
Perera -10.5% 3.7% 6.8%
P.Jay'dene 11.9% -22.0% 10.3%
Herath -9.0% -3.7% 12.8%
Mendis -5.9% 1.0% 4.9%


 And here is a graph of the match so far:

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