Saturday, 28 May 2011

England v Sri Lanka, 1st Test at Cardiff: Day 3

So England's 'form' players, Ally Cook and Jonathan Trott did the business today, having settled in with their now trademark grittyness. The funny thing is how quickly firm opinions can change- those who were relieved and starting to 'take the draw' during the morning's rain were soon wishing they could have had three more hours of cricket on day three! Actually what's most impressive about the partnership is that Trott made it to Wembley in time to win the Champions' League (maybe it's just the hairline, but isn't there a bit of Iniesta about England's South African player of the year?).
We're growing to love these guys: Cook was worth 1.2 Ashes Test wins in and of himself, and what a start to Trott's Test career! Let's all commit now take it easy on him when he has a couple of rough series- he really has earned the benefit of the doubt for some time...

Let's have a look at to what extent the players have contributed to their teams' chances of winning/losing/drawing this Test match as of the end of day 3:


Eng win
SL win
Draw
Tremlett -8.7% 4.1% 4.6%
Strauss -3.5% 6.6% -3.1%
Trott 0.6% -18.8% 18.2%
Cook 6.9% -28.5% 21.6%
Pietersen -0.6% 0.2% 0.4%
Broad -17.5% 10.6% 6.9%
Swann -5.8% 2.2% 3.7%
Anderson 19.9% -8.5% -11.5%





SL win
Eng win
Draw
Maharoof -12.1% 7.3% 4.8%
Lakmal -1.3% 1.8% -0.4%
Paran'ana -1.0% -4.2% 5.1%
Sang'ara -2.4% 5.7% -3.3%
Dilshan -3.6% -0.5% 4.1%
Sam'eera 3.5% -2.3% -1.2%
M.Jay'dene -5.6% 9.2% -3.7%
Perera -10.4% 4.7% 5.7%
P.Jay'dene 12.4% -22.1% 9.8%
Herath -9.2% -0.4% 9.7%
Mendis -6.4% 0.2% 6.3%


What's interesting (but not surprising) here is how little Cook and Trott contributed to an England win; they did however siphon almost 50% of a win from their opposition! In our view, 1% of negative LPA is worth just as much as 1% of positive WPA...

And here's a graph of the Test match so far:

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