It may still be that way, but England did get a rude awakening as Dilshan rattled on to 127 not out. Oh yes, now we remember- they can bat too! Now we're expecting them to rattle onto 500 or so. But let's not try to predict the future; our model may not be perfectly accurate (we don't expect it to be!) but it does help us get a rough idea of ranges of potential outcomes and in doing so deters us from trying to construct a narrative in advance (ahem, Vaughan, Hussain et al.). It's great once in a while when you get it right, but generally a waste of time (unless we're talking about Australia in the early 2000s).
So here's a summary of how much the players have done so far for their teams' chances of winning the Test:
Dilshan's superb effort has so far taken almost a quarter of a win away from England. Moreover, it has caused us to forget completely Matt Prior's excellent 126 off 131 balls (worth 16.8% of an England win) which had put England in a commanding position early on day 2.
Let's have a look at the Test so far, in graphical format: