Monday, 6 June 2011

England v Sri Lanka, 2nd Test at Lord's: Day 3

Day 3 at Lord's was something of a disappointment, with Dilshan falling just shy of his double century and rain yet again getting in the way of a perfectly good Test match. Who'd be a batsman in early summer Test cricket in England? Great batting doesn't win Tests, it draws them; poor batting loses them.

Anyway, whilst rain was always a possiblility, our program pootled along innnocently expecting all three days to be played out in full. Whilst this may distort the players' WPA (e.g. credit them with more wins than it should given expectations of overs lost), it does give us a good idea of how much the rain actually changed the game. Indeed, as illustrated by the graph below, it took 12.1% of a win from England and 28.8% of a win from Sri Lanka, increaing the draw probability by ca. 40%. As can be seen in the players' contributions below, Dilshan had earned Sri Lanka 19.4% of a win, but alas he was eclipsed by the weather...


Eng win
SL win
draw
Tremlett 1.4% -4.8% 3.4%
Morgan 8.3% -9.6% 1.3%
Strauss -6.1% 8.5% -2.4%
Finn -1.3% 3.0% -1.7%
Trott -7.0% 9.2% -2.3%
Cook 10.1% -11.6% 1.6%
Bell 1.3% -1.3% -0.1%
Pietersen -10.3% 10.1% 0.2%
Broad -16.9% 8.9% 8.0%
Prior 14.9% -18.2% 3.4%
Swann -19.1% 10.6% 8.6%
SL win
Eng win
draw
Maharoof -13.3% 10.0% 3.3%
Weleg'ara 3.5% 0.2% -3.6%
Dilshan 19.4% -29.3% 9.8%
Sang'ara -3.1% 0.2% 2.9%
Parav'ana 0.0% -5.2% 5.2%
Sam'eera -0.8% -0.6% 1.4%
Herath -9.7% 7.5% 2.3%
P.Jay'dene 3.4% -3.0% -0.4%
M.Jay'dene 4.0% -8.0% 4.0%
Lakmal 4.1% -1.0% -3.2%
Fernando -6.2% 6.1% 0.0%

And here is the Test match up to day 3, in graphical format; note the impact of the rain (discussed above):

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