Thursday, 16 June 2011

England v Sri Lanka, 3rd Test at the Rose Bowl: Day 1

We return with a brief cricketWPA update of the 3rd Test between England and Sri Lanka. As so few overs were played, we thought we'd hold off on the graph for today, but here is the tally of the match so far, in terms of wins/losses/draws (Prior has been penalised for byes):

Eng win
SL win
Tremlett 19.9% -13.2% -6.7%
Anderson 18.2% -13.1% -5.2%
Broad -5.6% 3.4% 2.2%
Prior -0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

SL win
Eng win
Thim'ne -5.9% 8.3% -2.4%
Sang'ara -6.2% 9.0% -2.8%
M.Jayd'ene -7.0% 10.6% -3.6%
P.Jayd'ene 1.2% -2.6% 1.4%
Parav'ana -6.4% 9.2% -2.8%
Sam'eera 3.4% -5.8% 2.4%

Clearly Tremlett and Anderson were the stars of the day, bagging large chunks of WPA with two wickets apiece. They seemed to benefit from the conditions in their early spells, whilst late in the day Prasana Jayawardene and Samaraweera were able to trim England's win probability by 8%. Another 50 or so wicketless runs would have a greater impact than that. One more wicket means the tail is exposed, and that yields plenty of WPA!

We should be looking at tomorrow morning as a turning point due to the aforementioned game sensitivity to runs and wickets; instead we'll be probably be watching an Ashes highlight reel as the Win Probability leaks slowly away.

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